Euro 2012 boosts tourism industry’s revenue in Poland

The Polish tourism industry benefited from the organisation of Euro 2012 championship last year. The number of foreign tourists visiting Poland in 2012 was the highest in five years, while the spending of foreign tourists reached the highest level since 2000. The total spending of foreign visitors in Poland during the Euro 2012 totaled PLN 1bn (EUR 247.7mn).

However, the effect of the sports event upon revenues in the tourism sector were not limited to boosting sales in June alone, but also rose the foreign visitors’ interest in Poland and extended the tourism season to September and October, thus allowing the sector to record higher revenues even in Q4.

In 2012, the total contribution of the travel and tourism sector to the GDP reached PLN 80.4bn (EUR 19.2bn), or 5% of GDP, up from PLN 75.9bn in 2011, according to estimates of the World Travel & Tourism Council.

Figure 1 Total contribution of travel&tourism to GDP in 2007-2013f (PLN bn)

Much more in the Intelinews report: Polish Tourism, Hotels & Restaurants Report

 

Rise in Romania’s public debt eases as fiscal consolidation advances.

Romania’s public debt edged up a modest 0.1pps ytd to 34.8% of GDP [ESA methodology] at the end of October 2012 – after it nearly tripled since the end of 2008. The domestic public debt expanded sharply by more than three times while the external public debt advanced at a slower pace yet still more than doubling. Notably however, a large part of the domestic debt is denominated in foreign currency – actually more than half of it [54.8% at the end of October].

Romania public debt

Much more in the EMD report: Romania Country Report

 

Romania’s central bank admits inflation slips outside target band by end-2013

Romania’s central bank has raised the year-end inflation projections by 1.9pps to 5.1% y/y for 2012 and by 0.5pps to 3.5% y/y for 2013, according to its Quarterly Inflation Report released on Nov 7. The IMF expert team visiting Romania expressed concerns with the price stability.

Consumer price inflation eased to 5% y/y in October after peaking to 5.3% y/y in September, the statistics office reported. CORE2 inflation was 3.2% y/y in September. The average consumer prices in the 12 months ending October were 3.1% up y/y, accelerating from 3% y/y growth registered last month.

 

 

 

 

PLUS:
FOCUS STORY: Are there grounds for euroscepticism in Romania?

This is only a small extract of the insights in the new Intellinews : Romania Country Report; read more and purchase now>>

 

Romania’s economy wears weary outlook

Romania’s economy increased by 0.7% y/y in H1 and will end with  negative for the year, less than -1%.  Bullish expectations were ruined by  poor use of EU funds and by  below-average agricultural production. The IMF and the government expect a much stronger advance in 2012 of 2.5%, according to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook. But even this will not help the country return to  pre-crisis 2008 GDP levels.

Romania’s statistics office revised the estimate for the country’s Q2 GDP to 1.1% y/y, down from 1.2% y/y previously announced on September 6, according to the newly introduced T+95 estimate. The adjustment is minor and does not send positive signals for the country’s economic growth,  already expected to slow  in H2.

These are only a few of the insights in the new IntelliNews : Romania Country Report. Learn more and purchase now>>

 

Romania’s GDP mirage: fact or fiction?

Romania’s seasonally-adjusted GDP edged up by 0.5% q/q in Q2, after it has stagnated for three years around the same level. Against the past quarter, the domestic demand strengthened robustly driven by both consumption (1.6% up q/q) and gross fix capital formation (gfcf, 4.4% up q/q). On the opposite, the external demand weakened visibly by 1.4% q/q. The imports edged up by 1.2% q/q contributing, besides the export’s weakening, to the deterioration of the external balance.

GDP and main elements by utilisation, quarterly, seasonally adjusted [2000=100]

These are only a few of the insights in the new IntelliNews : Romania Country Report. Learn more and purchase now>>

 

A quick peek into Romania’s economy and banking figures

The stock of provisions held by the Romanian banks increased by RON 3,161mn (EUR 722mn, or some 0.9% of their assets) in the first quarter of 2012, according to IntelliNews calculations based on the central bank data. Romania’s non-performing loans ratio reached 15.88% at the end of March, up from 14.33% at the end of 2011 and 12.71% at the end of March 2011. The loan loss provision cost thus neared the record level of EUR 747mn registered back in the second quarter of 2010, marking a visible deterioration from the moderate EUR 171mn provision cost in Q4/2011 or the average quarterly provision cost of EUR 416mn last year.

The banks derived an aggregate profit of EUR 28mn in Q1, according to IntelliNews calculations. The aggregate profit was close to zero in the final quarter of last year, according to adjusted data, while the banks incurred losses of EUR 181mn in full 2011 – compared to a combined loss of EUR 79mn reported the under preliminary [unrevised] data. The Romanian banks also posted an aggregate loss of EUR 123mn in 2010.

These are only a few of the findings in the new Intellinews Romania Country Report. Learn more and purchase now>>

 

Fiscal slippage risks remain high in Romania

Public debt service surged by 161% year over year in April and the co-financing also surged by 106% year over year as the government had to cover from own funds the sluggish payment flow from the EU to keep the projects on track. The government hiked the year-end cash deficit target to 2.2% of GDP from 1.9% previously, but meeting the new target is very unlikely.

The first-quarter deficit target was met only due to unsustainable policies – companies were forced to pay in advance their profit tax for the quarter, while the payment arrears of the central and local governments increased, the country’s independent fiscal supervisory body explained.

These are only a few of the insights from the IntelliNews Romania Country Report, May 2012. Read more and purchase>>