Is Romania’s pharmaceutical worry an epidemic or pandemic?

Romania’s pharmaceutical market distribution prices increased by 3.6% y/y to EUR 691.9mn in Q1/2013. The market edged up a mere 0.6% q/q in the quarter following difficulties stemming from regulatory and legislative constraints and not weak demand.

Prospects for the full-year pharmaceutical sales remain moderate. Market projections expect 1.4% y/y advance in local currency, while in EUR and USD terms the sales could even decline, depending on the evolution of the exchange rate.

Pharma quarterly sales in 2005-2013 (EUR mn, PPP)

Pharmaceutical sales in 2005-2013f (annual, RON mn, y/y)

Much more in the Intellinews report: Romania Pharmaceutical>>

 

Romania pharmaceutical market expected to grow in 2013

The Romanian pharmaceutical market growth eased to 8.3% y/y in 2012, from 12.4% y/y in 2011 and 18.8% y/y in 2010. The growth rates are expressed in RON and the consumer price inflation was 3.3% in 2012. In EUR terms, the pharmaceutical sales expanded by 3.1% y/y last year, a slow down from 11.5% y/y advance in 2011 and 19.6% y/y rise in 2010. The slowdown of the pharma market in 2012 was mainly because of financial constraints and not due to the potential demand for medicines, which is actually higher. The pharmaceutical sales are expected to edge up by only 1.4% y/y in 2013 when expressed in local currency, while in EUR and USD terms the market might even decline, according to  projections. Nonetheless, in volume terms, medicine sales will likely register positive y/y performance, as the demand for treatment is on the rise.

Learn more from our EMD report: Romania Pharmaceutical Report

 

Romanian pharmaceutical market falling sick?

Pharmaceutical sales increased by 5.2% y/y to RON 2.9bn (EUR 637.7mn) in Q3/2012, decelerating from the 12.6% y/y advance in H1. When expressed in EUR however, the market actually shrank by 0.9% y/y as the local currency weakened by 5.9% against EUR during the quarter.

The market growth is expected to ease to approximately 9.3% y/y this year (in RON terms) and a further 1.4% y/y in 2013. In EUR terms, it is a sliding speculation.

Despite tightening competition and delayed payments, the pharmaceutical companies reported improving financial results in Jan-Sep 2012. Domestic firms have plans to further expand their presence abroad and most market players project a positive y/y  results in 2012.

Figure 1 Pharma quarterly sales in 2005-2012 (EUR mn, PPP)

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New pharmaceutical legislation causes ill effect in Poland

The Polish pharmaceutical market value (in gross retail prices) rose by 3.7% y/y to around PLN 22.3bn (EUR 5.4bn) in 2011. However, medicine sales declined this year due to the new controversial reimbursement act enforced in January.

According to market data, pharmaceutical sales dropped by approximately 4% y/y between Jan-Sep 2012. The decline was noticeable both on the retail level and also in medicine output. Calculations based on official statistics shows that the pharmaceuticals sold production volume dropped by 9% y/y in Jan-Sep 2012. The pharmaceutical production index also slowed down visibly in Q1 and Q2 this year.

While legislation changes are presumed to drive the pharmaceutical market lower this year, the segment of prescription-based subsidized drugs, the OTC sector, is expected to continue growing.

Pharmaceutical market value in retail prices in 2011-2012

These are only a few of the insights in the new Intellinews Report : Polish Pharmaceutical Sector. Learn more and purchase now>>

 

Pharmaceutical market in Romania will be largely impacted by the controversial claw-back tax

Romania’s pharmaceutical sales in the 12 months ending June 2012 increased by 13.6% y/y (16.9% y/y in local currency) to EUR 2.6bn (RON 11.5bn), backed by the good performance in the period Jul 2011 – Mar 2012. In Q2/2012, medicine sales dropped by 2.5% y/y to EUR 626mn (RON 2.77bn), compared to the 18% y/y expansion in Q1. In local currency, sales still managed to post positive 4.4% y/y growth in Q2, but the advance eased significantly from the 21.6% y/y surge in the previous quarter. The slowdown in growth pace (in RON) and the moderate decline of the market in volume terms (down by 0.5% y/y in Q2) reveal companies’ tendency to shift focus from market share expansion to profitability, after the government’s attempt to enforce the claw-back tax.

Figure 1 Pharma annual sales in 2004 – 2012 (EUR mn, PPP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projections for the performance of the pharma market this year remain largely on the optimistic side, ranging from 5.7% y/y to 8.9% y/y growth in local currency.  Nonetheless, the evolution of the market will be largely impacted by regulatory measures such as the controversial clawback tax amended this August and also by the budget allotted for subsidized drugs.

These are only a few of the insights in the new IntelliNews Report: Romania Pharmaceutical sector. Learn more and purchase now>>